WTI front-month · 15 January – 21 September 2026 · v2

The Iran War Map

Play the war forward one session at a time and watch the market change regime. Stop anywhere and see only what was known that day. Arrive at today, and the single line becomes four.

War begins 28 Feb Sessions 170 Legs 19 Events 59 Regimes 9 Last settlement 18 Sep Evidence snapshot

ACT I

The tape

Press play. Markers appear as the market reaches them, the statistics panel recalculates using only completed legs confirmed by that date, and at the major turns the chart annotates itself. Nothing on screen at a given moment depends on anything that happened later.

Cinematic mode · the tape is playing itself

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Press play

The tape opens on 15 January 2026, six weeks before the first strike.

The war so far

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Everything the record holds

The completed picture, using only legs the five-session filter has confirmed.

But those statistics describe the past. The current decline is still being written.

ACT II

Where are we now

BRIDGE

Seven previous peaks

Before imagining the future, replay what actually happened after every earlier war peak. Each line is a real path, rebased so it starts at $105.83 on 15 September. The amber line is what has actually happened.

Closest by price path

Peak	Gap	Its decline	Days

Closest by conditions

Regime	Differs on	Its legs

History gives analogues. It does not choose the next path.

ACT III

The chart branches

Everything left of the amber line is observed. Everything right of it is dashed and hypothetical. None of this is a forecast. No probabilities are attached to any branch and no branch generates a target: each dashed path is a real segment of this war's own history, re-anchored at today's price and labelled with where it came from.

The research underneath

Everything the acts above are built on, in the form the builder produced it. Every number here comes out of engine/desk_iran_tape.py.

Why did oil move? Anticipation → event → reaction

Market-reaction matrix by event type

Statement ledger and its observed delivery record

Announcement → implementation → physical outcome

Case study: why did a de-escalation headline land on the trough?

What depends on what: the causal variables

Regime transitions

Trading agent research — active hypothesis

The end frame

The next leg is not in the data yet.

History gives us paths. Evidence tells us which ones are strengthening. The human decides.